Upcoming changes in sub-Saharan maize trade could spell potential trouble for Kenya.
Maize production in some of the sub-Saharan African countries that dominated maize supplies during the last marketing year is expected to be lower this coming season. This will bring about some changes in the sub continent’s maize trade in the future marketing year, in particular creating complications for Kenya.
The expected lower production comes in a season when demand for maize from countries in sub-Saharan Africa that rely heavily on imports is expected to remain strong. It’s estimated that Kenya, for example, will need to import 700,000 tonnes of maize for 2022/23. Kenya’s maize production is expected to be marginally higher, but not enough to meet the country’s needs.
Kenya is typically one of the major maize importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The country’s expected 700,000 tonnes of maize imports account for 21% of the region’s expected maize imports of 3.4 million tonnes in 2021/22 season, according to data from the International Grains Council. Other typical maize importing countries include Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia.